from Sebastian Glanzer
Just like in BfA, the level of your Mythic Plus keystone is reduced by 1 if you fail to complete a Mythic Plus dungeon at a higher level in the ID.

With Patch 9.0.5 of WoW Shadowlands, the developers make a change to Mythical Keystones and return to the Keystone mechanics from Battle for Azeroth. So far, it has been the case in Shadowlands that players from the Great Treasury always receive a keystone that is one level below their highest keystone from Shadowlands Season 1. If you have mastered a +15 dungeon in that time, you will always get a +14 key from the treasury or from the first mythical dungeon if you have not played the ID before.

With the update, your weekly keystone from the Great Treasure Chamber – or from the first mythical dungeon if you have not played a key before – will be lowered one level and further downgraded every week if you fail to play a higher key. For example, if you have previously completed a +14 key as your highest keystone in the ID, you will receive a +13 keystone from the treasury. The same goes for completing a Mythic Plus dungeon for the first time if you haven't earned a Keystone the week before. If you fail to play a +14 key in this ID, you will receive a +12 key the following week, etc.

Blizzard – Original Blue Post

  • Mythic Keystone Dungeons
    • The formula for determining the level of the first Mythic Keystone players receive each week has been adjusted.
      • Previously, players would always receive a Keystone 1 level below the highest they'd completed so far in Season 1.
      • After this change, Keystone level will continue to decrease by 1 per week until players again complete a higher level Keystone.
      • For example, a player who completes a level 15 Keystone will receive a level 14 Keystone the following week. If they do not complete a 15 or higher Keystone that week, they will receive a level 13 Keystone the week after.
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