The patch 9.1 delay remains omnipresent in Shadowlands. The facts: Patch 9.1 will appear about four months later as a normal X.1 update. The graphic of recompensor cptshooter shows in a very orderly manner in which period a WoW extension patches were released.
In the picture you can see the extensions listed from top to bottom, the patches of the addon are marked in color. Behind the bar you can see how many days the extension ran. Most of the time, an add-on contains three large patches. There are exceptions with WoD, MoP and TBC, but in the end the duration of the entire extension is between a good 650 and almost 800 days.
Where the X.2 update was already live in other expansions, Shadowlands will only get its first major patch. As of today (April 13th, 21st) Shadowlands is 141 days old. The Redditor basically assumes the worst-case scenario in its graphic and assumes that Patch 9.1 will not appear until day 251 – i.e. in just under 4 months.
That is very black painting. If we are optimistic, Patch 9.1 will be released in early June, around 200 days after release. The prerequisite for this is that the PTR for 9.1 really starts this week. In one of the shorter extensions (Cata, MoP or TBC), almost a third of the extension would have expired. The fact that the last major patch always had the longest running time so far makes hope for a third major update in Shadowlands wane.
How likely is a third update for Shadowlands?
Due to the current situation, Shadowlands will surely follow in BfA’s footsteps and be active for at least 800 days. Assuming patch 9.1 will run as long as patch 8.1 (almost 200 days) and the last patch is active for at least 300 days (as in BfA and Legion), then there is actually no time for an X.2 update in between. Because 200 days (runtime release up to patch 9.1) + 200 days (patch 9.1 runtime) + 300 days is already 700 days. And as I said, this is calculated optimistically. BfA ran as the longest expansion in history for 813 days. There is actually no more space for a proper interim patch before the last update.
If you are very optimistic and the PTR of Patch 9.1 will close in just under two months and the last raid tier will have a normal term, there is still a little bit of hope for Patch 9.2. However, the past has shown that “problem extensions” like WoD have an extremely long last raid tier (over 400 instead of 300 days).
In a world in which Shadowlands trumps the duration of the BfA and perhaps comes to 900 days, a patch 9.2 could still be a normal patch with a common duration. That would be conceivable under the current circumstances. Hope dies last.
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